r/wallstreetbets Feb 23 '21

Walking into the stock market today Meme

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u/13steinj Feb 23 '21

There have constantly been fears of a coming crash due to inflation and over-valuation of companies (extrinsic value is a thing, but over the pandemic its become more and more what people are pushing rather than intrinsic value).

When those fears escalate and people realize their extreme valuations of companies, the stock market will correct (or burst, but I doubt this is the bubble bursting). It is important to note that almost everything is doing worse than what even the most negative statistical models claimed, especially the tech industry.

Hence, last week I started rolling credit spreads on SPY. The panic is insane. Today I opened 3 call credit spread, premium width of $24 on a $1 spread expiring tomorrow with a 90% chance (based on basic models) of profit. There is almost no way there will be a recovery of that size by tomorrow. Only reason I'm not doing naked calls is because RH doesn't let me, and other brokers don't let me do spreads yet.

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u/movadolover Feb 23 '21

naked calls on SPY in one of the greatest bull markets of all time. Cannot possibly go tits up right?

Robinhood is inadvertently saving you from your own destruction.

No matter how smart you think you are, never go full retard

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u/[deleted] Feb 23 '21

Sir, this is r/wallstreetbets

14

u/Mozeeon Feb 23 '21

Damn. I thought this was a Wendy's. How do I get out of here?!

2

u/lilgrogu Feb 23 '21

Go to the GameStop next doors

4

u/Explod3 Feb 23 '21

“Greatest bull markets... i heard that in 2008.”

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u/13steinj Feb 23 '21

There is practically no chance that it will go tits up, at the strikes I'm referring to. There is a greater chance of me being run over by a car today, and I've stayed indoors practically all day today. If I'm that unlucky, I'll gladly take whatever relevant punishment. Financial or otherwise.

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u/Marandil Feb 23 '21

... said Ken Griffin writing GME calls prior to the week of Jan 25.

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u/13steinj Feb 23 '21

Except GME even before the week of Jan 25 had indication of a decent chance of blowing past 100.

On the other hand, people are still buying 400 strike calls on GME that expire tomorrow. If you think that that is remotely possible given current volatility statistics, I don't know what to tell you.

1

u/Marandil Feb 23 '21

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Yeah, but blowing past 320? (but yeah, 400 calls for tomorrow sound pretty dumb)

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39

u/slade998 Feb 23 '21

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2

u/kmank2l13 Feb 23 '21

YOOOO What is this? I almost choked on my food 😂💀

3

u/lalakuno Feb 23 '21

Good bot.

1

u/hipster3000 Feb 23 '21

Do you have any reason to doubt this bubble will burst or I'd it just because you don't want it to?

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u/13steinj Feb 23 '21

I can't tell what you're asking me. I'm not making an argument for or against a bubble or bursting. I'm just saying that today wasn't a bubble burst. Bubbles bursting are usually much bigger.